Test Although the objective of the energy transition - minimalisation of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050- is clear there are still many pathways open to reach it. All pathways will however require a severe overhaul of the current fossil-based energy system. To select passable pathways will require in-depth analyses of the broad range of supply and demand options that could meet the 2050 emissions options.
Based on 40 years of experience Van der Lee energy system analysis can help to create clearity regarding choices to be made in the energy transition. Not only from a technical perspective but also from a social perpective for involved stakeholders
The global energetic challenge
The control of fire by humans was an important step in the evolution of mankind. It all started one million years ago with the homo erectus who built fires with biomass for heating, lighting and to keep predators at a distance. According to archeologists the first human using a fossil fuel as energy source was a Chinese person some 4000 years ago. The invention of the steam engine leading to the industrial revolution has been identified as the starting point for our current addiction to fossil fuels. Although there are still sufficient fossil fuel resources available it is the waste product, carbon dioxide, that requires immediate action to keep the earth livable.
THE GROWING ADDICTION TO CONSERVED SOLAR ENERGY
The relative easy access to fossil fuel reserves and the development of the steam engine have led to the first Industrial Revolution which started in the first half in the first half of the nineteenth century.
With the mechanical production of electric power from fossil fuels at the end of the nineteenth century began the second Industrial Revolution leading to numerous new electric applications and as a consequence a steep growth in fossil fuel consumption.
Although already mentioned in the first report of the Club of Rome it took until 1988 that the public started paying closer attention to the effect of carbon dioxide emissions on the climate. This as a result of a presentation of a model study by NASA to the US congress showing that global warming had become a reality and would require a severe cut in fossil fuel consumption to keep the earth livable .
GETTING CLEAN
With the ratification of the Paris Climate Agreement almost 200 countries have legally bound themselves to become carbon neutral by 2050. This will mean a complete overhaul of the current fossil-dominated energy system in less than thirty years.
Electricity from solar and wind will most likely play the leading role in the future global energy system. A crucial supporting role is expected for hydrogen as feedstock for chemicals, fuel for back-up power plants and applications which are difficult to electrify.
A complete detox from fossil fuels by 2050 will require a kind of war effort by the industrialised world to achieve. Although the intentions are there, there is still no clear picture how the 2050 goal can be met.
CONSERVATION OF SOLAR ENERGY
In the Carboniferous period (from about 360 million to 300 million years ago) the earth was covered with dense and swampy forests, which gave rise to large deposits of peat. Over time the peat transformed into rich coal deposits.
Most natural gas and oil reserves date back between 10 and 180 millio years ago. They were formed under high temperature and heat, from organic sediments of early sealife
